A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
